By Matik Kueth
Global temperatures are rising, with an 80 percent probability that at least one year between now and 2029 will establish a new heat record, according to the World Meteorological Organization’s (WMO) latest data.
The Global Annual to Decadal Climate Update predicts that temperatures over the next five years will range from 1.2°C to 1.9°C above pre-industrial levels (1850–1900).
In 2024 alone, average global temperatures are estimated to be between 1.34°C and 1.41°C higher than the baseline. For the 20 years from 2015 to 2034, the WMO now projects an average rise of about 1.44°C.
Alarmingly, the analysis indicates an 86% likelihood that global temperatures will exceed the critical 1.5°C threshold in at least one of the next five years.
There’s even a 1 percent risk that temperatures may exceed the 2°C barrier in that timeframe. Furthermore, there is an 80 percent likelihood that the five-year average will exceed 1.5°C.
The WMO clarified that the 1.5°C target under the Paris Agreement applies to long-term averages over two decades, so that benchmark hasn’t officially been breached yet. However, these short-term spikes are early indicators of a worsening climate crisis.
The report also outlines significant shifts in rainfall patterns: wetter conditions are forecast for the African Sahel, northern Europe, and South Asia, while the Amazon may continue to suffer from drought.
The Arctic region remains a hotspot for climate disruption. Over the next five winters, the average temperature is anticipated to be 2.4°C higher than the 1991-2020 average, more than tripling the global increase.
Melting sea ice, notably in the Barents, Bering, and Okhotsk Seas, is expected to speed up sea-level rise and destabilize global weather systems.
As the world enters this critical phase, the WMO calls for immediate global action to reduce emissions and prevent more intense warming in the future, with the goal of keeping long-term temperature rise below the 1.5°C threshold.